HBAR, the native token of the Hedera network, is trading at $0.08 — a level where every major moving average sits stacked above as resistance. With retail short interest hitting 58%, the market is betting heavily against further gains, but the technical picture suggests the opposite could be in play.
Resistance stacked overhead
The token's price is below all key moving averages, a configuration that usually signals bearish momentum. But the fact that those averages are clustered so close together — rather than spread out — means a break above any one of them could trigger a cascade. Traders watching the chart see a tight band of potential resistance, not a wall.
Crowded short trade
Short interest among retail traders stands at 58%, a figure that indicates an overwhelming majority of small investors are betting the token will fall. When a trade becomes that lopsided, any upward move forces short sellers to buy back shares to cover their positions, adding fuel to the rally. The current setup has the ingredients for a classic short squeeze.
Oversold signal near zero
The stochastic oscillator, a momentum indicator that compares a closing price to its price range over a given period, is buried near zero. Readings that low typically mean an asset is oversold and due for a bounce. For HBAR, the indicator is flashing one of its most extreme oversold readings in recent memory, raising the odds of a reversal.
Squeeze scenario and price targets
If a squeeze materializes, the immediate upside target is $0.09 — a move of about 12.5% from current levels. On the downside, a failure to hold support could send the token to $0.07, a level not seen in months. The risk-reward ratio is lopsided: the potential gain to the next resistance is roughly the same magnitude as the drop to the next support, but the crowded short positioning tilts the odds toward a bounce.
Whether that bounce turns into a proper squeeze depends on volume. Without a surge in buying interest, the overhead moving averages could continue to cap gains. For now, all eyes are on whether short sellers start to blink.
