HBAR is projected to fall 18% to a support level of $0.074 before staging a recovery that could push the token to $0.12 by the end of the year, according to market data. The prediction comes as aggressive selling pressure persists, yet smart money positions remain heavily tilted long — a divergence that could determine the token's near-term trajectory.
What the forecast shows
The projected decline to $0.074 represents an 18% drop from current levels. That price point, analysts tracking the data say, is a key support zone where buying interest has historically emerged. The forecast anticipates a bounce from that level, with the recovery carrying HBAR to $0.12 by year-end — roughly a 62% gain from the predicted bottom.
The numbers come from market models that track order flow and price action. No specific analyst or firm is named in the data, but the pattern is clear: a near-term sell-off followed by a sharp reversal.
Smart money versus selling pressure
Despite the bearish short-term outlook, so-called smart money — typically institutional or well-capitalized traders — is positioned 64% long. That means the majority of large, informed positions are betting on higher prices, even as the market experiences heavy selling.
The contradiction raises a question: will the selling pressure overwhelm those longs, or will the smart money hold and eventually win out? The forecast suggests the latter, but only after the price first drops to the support level.
Aggressive selling has been a feature of recent trading sessions. It's unclear who is behind the sell orders or whether it's a coordinated move. What is clear is that the selling has not deterred the long-biased smart money from maintaining their positions.
The path to recovery
If the forecast holds, the next few weeks could see HBAR grind lower toward $0.074. That would test the resolve of long holders. A failure to hold that level could open the door to deeper losses. But if support holds, the rebound to $0.12 would represent a significant turnaround.
The year-end target implies a recovery that would erase the projected decline and then some. For traders watching the data, the key is whether the selling pressure eases once the price approaches the support zone. The smart money positioning suggests they believe it will.
For now, the market watches and waits. The question isn't whether the forecast is right or wrong — it's whether the selling pressure can break through the $0.074 level before the long holders step in to defend it.
