HBAR's recent climb above $0.09 may not be the start of a sustained rally. A market analyst is warning that the move is a “fake breakout” that could lure retail buyers into a trap before a deeper correction takes the token down to $0.07 — though not before a short-term bounce to $0.12.
Why the breakout is called fake
The analyst describes the push past $0.09 as a classic fake breakout, a pattern where prices break a key resistance level only to reverse sharply. According to the forecast, this setup is designed to draw in latecomers expecting further gains before the price turns against them. The warning comes as HBAR traders had been watching the $0.09 level closely as a potential launchpad for a larger move.
What the price path looks like
The prediction outlines a two-step move. First, HBAR is expected to bounce to $0.12 within the next seven days — a roughly 33% gain from current levels near $0.09. But that rally would be short-lived. After hitting $0.12, the analyst forecasts a deeper correction that would take the token down to $0.07, a drop of more than 40% from the projected peak. The timing of the correction is not specified beyond the initial seven-day window for the bounce.
What this means for retail traders
The analyst specifically flags retail buyers as those most at risk in the fake-out scenario. The bounce to $0.12 could create a sense of momentum, tempting traders who missed the initial move to chase the price higher. Once they enter, the correction would leave them holding losses. The forecast suggests that anyone buying near the $0.09 level or higher could face a painful reversal if the pattern plays out as predicted.
The coming days will be critical. If HBAR holds above $0.09 and actually pushes toward $0.12, the real test will be whether that rally can sustain itself or turns into the deeper drop the analyst expects. For now, the token sits in a zone where the breakout's legitimacy is very much in question.
