Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE jumped 12% over the past 24 hours, hitting around $68 as a broader crypto rally gained steam on news of a peace deal between the United States and Iran. The move pushed HYPE’s market cap past $15 billion, re‑entering the top 10 and briefly flipping Dogecoin. But the rally comes with technical and on‑chain warning signs that some traders are watching closely.
How the rally happened
The peace deal between Washington and Tehran sparked a risk‑on mood across markets, and crypto was no exception. HYPE, which hit an all‑time high of about $75 in early June 2025 before sliding to roughly $53 — a decline fueled in part by Arthur Hayes dumping his positions — has now recovered much of those losses in a single day. The 12% surge is the token’s biggest single‑day gain in weeks, and it brought HYPE back into the top 10 by market capitalization.
Bullish calls and a technical warning
Several analysts are betting the run has room to go. Cozy the Caller, KNIGHT, and Owl Prints have all predicted HYPE could climb to $100 or even above $110 in the coming months. But the chart tells a more cautious story. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a head‑and‑shoulders pattern forming on HYPE’s daily chart, with $65 acting as key resistance. He warned that if the token loses $54, it could trigger a correction all the way to $40. The Relative Strength Index is at 93 — deep in overbought territory — which historically has preceded pullbacks.
On‑chain signals point to potential selling pressure
Exchange netflow data adds to the caution. Over the past three days, investors have been moving holdings from self‑custody wallets onto centralized platforms, a pattern that typically signals an intent to sell. That shift increases the supply side of the order book and could cap further upside, especially with RSI already flashing overbought. The question now is whether the bullish macro catalyst can overpower the technical and on‑chain headwinds, or whether the recent spike sets up a sharper reversal.
