Hyperliquid's HYPE token is up 1.9% over the past 24 hours after holding support near $75, a level that also propped the token up in mid-September before it ran to a record high. The bounce keeps the near-term structure intact, but it doesn't flip the broader picture: the Relative Strength Index sits at 39, below neutral, so sellers still have the advantage.
The next test is $83. A move above that resistance would strengthen the case for a recovery and could bring a near-term target around $89 into focus. The downside is just as clearly drawn. A break below $75 would expose the 200-day EMA near $67.50 as the next technical support.
What's weighing on the token
Open interest across the Hyperliquid blockchain has fallen roughly 11% from its September 13 peak of $9.1 billion. That's a meaningful unwind, and it lines up with the softer RSI. Leverage is coming off, not piling in.
The macro backdrop isn't helping either. CME FedWatch data shows just a 9% probability of a rate increase at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, but more than three-quarters of surveyed analysts expect one in December. Higher inflation readings and oil prices above $100 have muddied the path for monetary policy, and markets are braced for volatility around the Fed's decision and the guidance that follows it.
HIP-3 volume is the bright spot
Trading on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 markets has held up better than the rest of the venue, with a milder decline than the broader market over the past couple of weeks. HIP-3 is the framework that lets the platform list markets for assets beyond crypto, including stocks and commodities.
The numbers are striking. Weekly HIP-3 volume rose from $12.4 billion in the week ending October 4 to $19.6 billion the following week, a jump of roughly 58%, according to Hyperliquid Stats. That's the kind of growth that gets people excited about the token. It also comes with a caveat the bulls should keep in mind.
Volume isn't demand for HYPE
Heavy trading on HIP-3 markets doesn't establish how much demand it actually creates for HYPE. Volume can be routed, hedged, or cycled through without buyers taking a lasting position in the token. The HIP-3 surge is a genuine data point, but it isn't proof of a bid under HYPE itself.
For now, the chart is doing the talking. HYPE is bouncing, open interest is shrinking, and the RSI is still on the sellers' side. The $83 line is the one to watch for a recovery case. The $75 line is the one to watch for everything else.
The immediate catalyst is the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the guidance that comes with it. With three-quarters of analysts leaning toward a December increase, the market has a clear event to trade around — and HYPE's support levels will be tested against it.
