Hyperliquid's native token HYPE is heading for its second losing month of 2026, down more than 13% in July to around $54 — roughly 30% below the mid-June record high of $76. The slide comes as three Hyperliquid-linked ETFs posted their first negative month since launch, with over $13 million in net outflows in July and nearly $27 million leaving since demand reversed in the second half of the month, ending a nine-week inflow streak.
Grayscale's valuation argument
Grayscale Research argues the selloff is overdone. Using an 'earnings per token' model, the firm estimates HYPE is trading at 15-18 times projected earnings — well below Coinbase (35x) and Circle (40x). The model relies on Hyperliquid's fee revenue from its decentralized perpetual-futures platform, most of which is used to repurchase HYPE, creating a direct link between trading activity and token demand. Hyperliquid crossed $1 billion in cumulative protocol revenue in less than two years, despite a broad crypto downturn and macroeconomic volatility. Grayscale projects the network could approach $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027, with 270-310 million tokens circulating, yielding estimated earnings per token of $3.25-$3.75.
But the comparison has limits. HYPE holders don't own equity, revenue doesn't accrue like corporate earnings, and the model depends on sustained trading activity, buybacks, and token supply assumptions. Grayscale itself notes those caveats.
Traditional assets overtake crypto on Hyperliquid
While HYPE's price has struggled, Hyperliquid's expansion into traditional asset markets is picking up speed. Perpetual contracts tied to stocks, commodities, and indexes generated $25.1 billion in volume during the week of July 13-19 — 52% of Hyperliquid's $48.2 billion weekly total. It was the first time traditional asset markets surpassed all other categories combined.
ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente noted that Hyperliquid processed about $50 billion of the $79 billion in decentralized exchange perpetual-futures volume that week. Roughly $26 billion came from traditional-asset-linked markets, which alone exceeded the combined crypto perpetual volume of all other DEXs. Single-stock contracts have led the charge, accounting for about 61% of HIP-3 volume tied to traditional assets since June.
The token's price remains under pressure from ETF outflows and broader market headwinds. But the underlying network is generating real revenue and expanding into markets that could sustain buyback demand. Whether Grayscale's valuation thesis holds depends on whether trading activity — especially in traditional assets — keeps growing. The next few months will show if the traditional asset push can offset the crypto downturn that's weighing on HYPE's price.
