Injective (INJ) dropped 6.56% in the latest session, falling to $4.63 and hitting its lower Bollinger Band. The move comes as open interest expands into the price decline — a bearish signal that often precedes further downside. Retail short sellers now control 60% of the order book, a level that could either accelerate the drop or set the stage for a squeeze.
Why the Bollinger Band pin matters
The lower Bollinger Band at $4.63 is acting as a technical floor — for now. When a price is pinned against that band while open interest rises, it suggests new money is betting on continued declines. That's exactly what's happening with INJ. The band itself doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it does mark a zone where traders watch closely for either a breakdown or a sharp bounce.
Volume picked up during the sell-off, confirming the move's strength. If the band fails to hold, the next major support sits at $4.37, a level that has acted as a pivot in recent months.
Retail shorts in control
Retail traders are the dominant force on the short side, holding 60% of the order book. That concentration can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it shows a strong bearish consensus among smaller traders. On the other, it creates a crowded trade — if the price reverses, those shorts may rush to cover, fueling a rapid move higher.
The expanding open interest into the decline suggests new short positions are being opened rather than existing ones being added to. That's a sign of fresh bearish conviction, but it also means the short base is growing, raising the stakes for any potential squeeze.
Price targets and the squeeze scenario
Market participants are now eyeing $4.37 as the next key support. A break below that could open the door to further losses. But if the price holds and starts to climb, the same retail-heavy short book could become fuel for a rally. The upside target being watched is $5.87 — a level that would represent a roughly 27% gain from current prices.
Whether that happens depends on whether the shorts get spooked. For now, the data points to a market that's heavily tilted toward the bearish side, but with the kind of setup that can flip quickly.
The question hanging over INJ is simple: will the shorts get squeezed, or will the selling pressure push through the band? The next few sessions should provide an answer.
