Global equity funds sucked in $118 billion over the final weeks of April, while cash vanished from money-market funds by $173 billion the week of April 15. That $292 billion swing toward riskier assets has tightened Bitcoin's link to traditional markets, with institutions now overwhelmingly calling it undervalued.
Institutional Views Turn Bullish
Seventy-five percent of institutions surveyed by Coinbase in March and early April said Bitcoin was cheap. That's 29 firms with real money at stake. Over half of retail respondents agreed. The timing isn't coincidental—equity inflows hit their highest since 2025 right as the survey closed. Institutions aren't betting blindly. They see the shift in flows as a green light.
On-Chain Signals Point to Quiet Hoarding
Fresh supply on the move dropped 37% in the first quarter. Long-term holders added to their stacks, pushing that supply up 1%. Miners are in a tight spot—the Puell Multiple hit 0.7 in Q1, putting their revenue 30% below the year-ago pace. That combo feels familiar. It matches what happened during past accumulation phases when prices stabilized after selloffs.
Stablecoins Anchor Market Liquidity
When prices dipped recently, stablecoins didn't flee. Their total supply inched up from $308 billion to $320 billion. That's money staying put in crypto rather than bolting for cash. Options positions grew 2.4% and perpetual futures recovered 8.6%. The market's not roaring back—but it's patching itself together after the last wave of forced selling.
What Will Flip the Outlook?
Coinbase's latest institutional report holds a neutral stance. It won't turn optimistic without three things: Middle East tensions easing, oil prices falling, and inflation cooling. The correlation with S&P 500 hit 0.58 last quarter—higher than ever before. That means Bitcoin's fate is now tied to global risk appetite. If the Fed eases, crypto likely lifts off. But without those triggers? The current calm won't last.
