Bitcoin's 2026 bear market is playing out differently from past downturns, and the February low near $60,000 probably marks the worst of it, according to a research note from K33 Research.
The analysis, published this week by K33's head of research Vetle Lunde, challenges the idea that the current sell-off will deepen into a full-blown crash on par with earlier cycles. Instead, Lunde argues that the February trough represents the deepest pullback of this downturn — a bottom that, if it holds, would make this bear market shallower than many expect.
A different kind of downturn
Lunde's note doesn't rehash the usual pattern of a sharp sell-off followed by a V-shaped recovery. He says this cycle is structurally different from previous ones, though he doesn't spell out every reason in the public version of the note. The implication is that the forces driving prices lower — whether regulatory overhang, macroeconomic pressure, or something else — have played out differently enough that the old playbook doesn't apply.
That's a contrarian stance right now. Many traders have been bracing for a retest of the $60,000 level or worse. K33's view suggests the worst may already be in the rearview mirror.
What the research says
K33's analysis points to February 2026 as the moment when bitcoin touched $60,000 — a price that Lunde says likely represents the deepest point of this bear phase. The note doesn't predict a new all-time high anytime soon, but it does argue that the probability of another leg down below that level is lower than the market seems to be pricing in.
The research comes as bitcoin trades well below its 2025 highs, and the broader crypto market remains skittish. But K33's take is a rare piece of relatively upbeat structural analysis in a season of gloom.
For now, the market will have to decide whether Lunde's framework holds up. The full note is available to K33 clients — but the headline takeaway is already clear: one of the more respected research desks in crypto is betting the bottom is in.
