K33 Research expects Bitcoin to slog through a 'choppy summer' as investors rotate capital into AI stocks, piling pressure on the largest crypto by market cap. The Oslo-based research firm argues the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin has become painfully obvious: while AI-related equities rip higher, BTC sits mostly flat. Still, K33 insists the asset is undervalued relative to public equities — a view that puts them at odds with the broad market's current appetite for artificial-intelligence plays.
The 'choppy summer' forecast
In a note circulated this week, K33 analysts said Bitcoin's price action is likely to stay range-bound and volatile — 'choppy' in their words — through the warmer months. They didn't pin a specific price target on the prediction, but the message is clear: the immediate setup isn't friendly for bulls. Bitcoin has struggled to hold recent gains as money managers shift attention — and actual capital — to names riding the AI wave. The pattern mirrors what some traders call a 'risk-on rotation away from crypto,' even as the broader market remains risk-seeking.
Why AI stocks are winning
The opportunity cost argument is brutal in black and white. AI-linked equities have posted double-digit percentage gains this year, with names like Nvidia and a handful of newer AI infrastructure firms dominating fund flows. Bitcoin, by contrast, has largely churned sideways since early 2026. For portfolio managers juggling performance, the choice has been straightforward: park cash where the momentum is. K33 notes that this isn't a bearish call on Bitcoin's long-term value — it's a tactical observation about where capital is flowing right now. The research firm calls the environment 'a test of conviction' for HODLers.
Still undervalued, they argue
Despite the rotation, K33 maintains that Bitcoin is underpriced relative to equities when measured by standard valuation metrics like the Sharpe ratio and volatility-adjusted returns. The firm's analytics suggest BTC's risk-reward profile still beats many equity benchmarks over longer horizons — a claim that might sound contrarian given the AI mania. K33 points out that Bitcoin's current market cap vs. realized cap (a proxy for aggregate cost basis) shows less froth than it did during past peaks. That doesn't guarantee a breakout, but it does suggest the downside is limited if the AI trade eventually runs out of steam.
The note ends without a near-term catalyst — no expected ETF flows, no regulatory trigger. For now, K33 is telling clients to buckle up for a grinding few months. Whether Bitcoin can shake off the AI gravity later in 2026 depends on how long the equity rally holds investor attention.
