Two major prediction-market platforms, Kalshi and Hyperliquid, continue to accept users from the Netherlands — even though Dutch regulators have banned crypto-based prediction markets and forced at least one competitor to exit. The situation, which has been quietly unfolding for months, highlights a glaring gap in how European authorities enforce their own rules.
Polymarket, the largest crypto prediction market by volume, left the Dutch market in February 2024 after regulators made clear the platform's operations violated local gambling and financial laws. But Kalshi and Hyperliquid, both U.S.-based platforms with global user bases, never followed suit. Dutch users can still sign up, deposit funds, and trade on event contracts — from election outcomes to sports results — as if no ban existed.
Why Polymarket left and others didn't
Polymarket's exit was swift and public. The company said at the time it would block Dutch IP addresses and require know-your-customer checks that excluded Dutch residents. The move came after the Dutch gambling authority, Kansspelautoriteit, issued warnings about unlicensed betting platforms offering crypto-based contracts.
But Kalshi and Hyperliquid appear to have taken a different approach. Neither platform is licensed in the Netherlands, and neither has announced any restriction on Dutch users. Their terms of service don't explicitly ban residents of the Netherlands, and users report that registration and trading work without issues. It's unclear whether regulators have contacted either company.
Regulatory gaps in practice
The situation underscores a basic enforcement problem. Europe's patchwork of national regulators means a ban in one country doesn't automatically trigger the same action across the bloc. Even within the Netherlands, the ban targets platforms that offer "crypto-based prediction contracts," but the definition is loose enough that platforms can argue they offer financial derivatives or informational contracts — not gambling.
Kalshi, for instance, is registered as a designated contract market with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It has long argued its contracts are commodity futures, not gambling. That legal framing may give it cover in jurisdictions where the ban is written narrowly. Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange, doesn't have a central operator that can easily block users — a technical reality that makes enforcement nearly impossible.
Dutch authorities haven't publicly commented on Kalshi or Hyperliquid since the Polymarket exit. Whether they're preparing enforcement actions or simply lack the resources to chase every platform is unclear.
What this means for users
For Dutch traders, the practical reality is simple: they can still use both platforms. Some have expressed frustration that Polymarket left while competitors continue operating — effectively punishing the one platform that complied. Others worry that a sudden crackdown could freeze funds or lead to legal trouble.
Neither Kalshi nor Hyperliquid has responded to requests for comment. Their silence suggests they're betting regulators won't act anytime soon. If that bet is wrong, Dutch users could find themselves locked out overnight — just as Polymarket's users did two years ago.
The bigger question is whether European regulators will coordinate to close the gap. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, which came into force in 2023, doesn't specifically address prediction markets. That leaves national authorities to improvise — and platforms to exploit the loopholes.
