MATIC, the native token of the Polygon network, is trading at $0.38 as of Thursday, and technical indicators are pointing to more downside. The Relative Strength Index has slipped into oversold territory, while all major moving averages now sit above the current price, acting as resistance. Analysts tracking the token see a 70% chance it hits $0.35 within the next seven to ten days.
Oversold Alert on the RSI
The Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, has dipped below the 30 mark — a threshold often taken as a sign that an asset has been oversold. For MATIC, that reading has historically preceded both continued drops and sharp reversals. Right now, the momentum is still tilted to the downside, and the RSI hasn't yet shown the kind of divergence that would suggest a bottom is forming.
Moving Averages Stack Up as Resistance
On the daily chart, the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are all above MATIC's current price. That means any attempt to rally will first have to break through a series of overhead supply levels. The closest resistance is around $0.42 from the 20-day moving average, but with volume low and sentiment weak, traders aren't betting on a quick bounce.
Probability and Target Price
The projected target of $0.35 represents a roughly 8% decline from today's level. The odds assigned to that move are 70%, based on the combination of oversold conditions, failing support, and the weight of the moving-average ceiling. A drop to $0.35 would put MATIC at its lowest point since mid-2023, raising the question of whether support will hold or break further.
The next few trading sessions will show if the oversold reading triggers any buying interest or if sellers keep pushing the price lower toward that target. No major network upgrades or partnership announcements are pending, leaving the price action to technical factors and broader market sentiment alone.
