Monero (XMR) dropped another 2% on Friday, sliding for a third consecutive session and staying below $330. The decline comes as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone, with markets now pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike at an upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sank to 15 on Thursday, keeping sentiment squarely in 'Extreme Fear' territory.
Monero Sinks for Third Session
XMR has been losing ground all week. On Friday it was still trading under $330, well below the Bollinger Bands middle line near $340. The 50-day exponential moving average sits at about $359, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs cluster near $366. The MACD histogram is still positive and the Money Flow Index hovers near 65, suggesting steady capital inflows — but those signals point to corrective bounces, not a trend reversal. The technical picture looks fragile.
Hawkish Fed Adds Pressure
The macro backdrop isn't helping. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh held his first post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, and the message was clear: policymakers want inflation back to 2% and are putting price stability ahead of near-term monetary easing. For risk assets like crypto, that usually means more headwinds. The probability of a rate hike — rather than a cut — is now at 30% in futures markets. That's not the kind of environment that typically lifts speculative tokens.
Where Support and Resistance Sit
On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band sits near $291. If XMR breaks below that level, losses could accelerate quickly. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $340, the middle Bollinger Band. Beyond that, $359 and $367 loom as tougher barriers. The upper band is at $389, but that target looks distant right now. The market is testing the floor, and a clean break below $291 would open up more room to fall.
What to Watch
All eyes are on that $291 support. If Monero can hold it, there's a chance for a rebound toward $340. But with macro uncertainty and the Fear & Greed Index scraping single-digit territory, the odds favor more downside in the near term. The next Fed meeting — whenever that rate hike talk gets real — will likely decide whether crypto gets any relief or stays under pressure.
