Representative Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18, a bill that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on government policy or political outcomes through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The measure targets concerns that lawmakers could use nonpublic information to place trades on platforms that let users bet on election results, legislative votes, and regulatory decisions.
Why the bill was introduced
Prediction markets have boomed in recent years, letting anyone with an internet connection bet on everything from who'll win the next presidential election to whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates. Critics worry that members of Congress have an unfair edge — they sit in closed briefings, vote on bills before they become law, and hear about regulatory changes before the public does. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act is designed to close that loophole.
It's not the first attempt. In March, Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which targets trades based on nonpublic information across any platform. A House companion bill, the PREDICT Act, extends similar restrictions to lawmakers' families.
What happens if they break the rules
The bill lays out a specific penalty structure. Violators must pay a fine of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value — whichever is greater — and forfeit any net gain from the bet. Critically, they cannot use official allowances, Senate expense accounts, or political donations to cover the fine. That closes a potential workaround that some critics feared would let lawmakers tap taxpayer or donor money to settle their debts.
If a lawmaker resigns or retires without paying, the Department of Justice can step in. The bill allows DOJ to pursue civil enforcement against former members who still owe money.
Platforms already moving
Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the biggest U.S.-focused prediction markets, aren't waiting for the law to pass. Kalshi has rolled out risk scoring, employment checks, and a whistleblower channel to catch insider trading. Polymarket brought in Chainalysis, the blockchain analytics firm, to build an on-chain surveillance system that flags suspicious trading patterns.
Those measures could help, but the bill's sponsors argue that voluntary steps aren't enough. Without a clear legal ban, the worry is that a few bad actors could undermine public trust in the entire system.
The bill now heads to committee. One open question: how to police family members who might not realize they're breaking the rules — or who claim they didn't know a piece of information was nonpublic.
