Bitcoin has clawed back above $80,000 in recent weeks, but one crypto analyst warns that history suggests this bounce may not be the real bottom. In previous bear cycles — 2018 and 2022 — Bitcoin only formed a durable floor after printing nine consecutive red monthly candles. The current cycle hasn't hit that mark yet.
The nine-candle rule
Bitcoin's major bear-market bottoms in the last two cycles followed a clear pattern: nine straight months of red candles. From its January 2018 peak to the December 2018 bottom around $3,200, every monthly candle closed lower. Same thing in 2022 — from the November 2021 all-time high to the November 2022 bottom near $15,500, nine red months in a row.
This time around, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. The monthly candle that month closed red, and the red streak continued through February 2026. That's five consecutive red months — not nine. March and April both closed green, and May 2026 is on track for another green month.
Too early to call a new bull run
The analyst behind the warning says the pattern suggests it's too early to assume the bounce above $80,000 is the start of a new bull phase. Bear markets in crypto typically take about a year to fully play out before a durable bottom forms. If the red-candle theory holds, the current corrective price action could stretch into Q4 2026 before a stronger long-term floor appears.
That doesn't mean prices are guaranteed to fall further. But the analyst's point is clear: the green candles in March, April and likely May don't break the pattern yet. The nine red months came after the peak in each prior cycle, not before it. Bitcoin's streak of red months stopped at five this time — far short of the historical threshold.
What to watch next
The next few months will be telling. If Bitcoin prints a red monthly candle in June or July, the count resets or continues — either way, the bottom could be pushed deeper into 2026. If green candles keep piling up, the pattern may be broken altogether. For now, the analyst's framework puts a potential floor somewhere in the fourth quarter, assuming history repeats.
