Bitcoin could slide to $38,000–$40,000 by October 2026, according to a new report from NYDIG. The projection comes as the largest cryptocurrency trades at $64,809, down nearly 30% year-to-date. NYDIG's analysis draws parallels to prior "reset years" in 2014, 2018, and 2022, though it notes the current cycle isn't identical.
NYDIG sees $38K–$40K by October
The report's target range represents a potential further decline of roughly 38% from today's price. Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,080 was reached in October 2025 — less than a year ago. A drop to $40,000 would mean a 68% peak-to-trough drawdown, putting this cycle in the same ballpark as previous bear markets. NYDIG didn't specify a precise timeline within October, but the forecast is stark.
Bitcoin's 2026 slide in context
This year's sell-off stands out for what it isn't: a crypto-specific crisis. Instead, Bitcoin has underperformed other risk-on assets. AI equities have surged while crypto slumped. The correlation with gold actually increased in Q2 2026, as both assets experienced sell-offs — an unusual pairing that suggests broader macro forces at work. Bitcoin had its least volatile year in 2025, making the current volatility feel sharper by comparison.
The one bill that could change the narrative
NYDIG points to the CLARITY Act, a crypto-friendly market-structure bill, as the most important forward catalyst for the industry. The legislation would provide clearer rules for digital asset classification and exchange registration. It's been discussed for months, but its passage remains uncertain. If it moves forward, it could shift sentiment. If it stalls, the bear case gets heavier.
The report's October target gives the industry a few months to see whether the CLARITY Act or other catalysts can alter the trajectory. For now, the path of least resistance looks lower.
