NYDIG, a crypto investment firm, has published a forecast warning that Bitcoin could fall to a cycle low between $38,000 and $39,000 by October if the current drawdown matches the depth of the 2022 bear market. The prediction comes as the broader crypto market continues to face downward pressure.
The bear-case scenario
In its latest analysis, NYDIG outlined a scenario where Bitcoin's price decline follows a trajectory similar to the 2022 bear market. If that pattern holds, the firm sees a potential bottom in the $38,000 to $39,000 range by October. The forecast does not assume a recovery before that point, but rather a continuation of the current downtrend to those levels.
The 2022 parallel
NYDIG's analysts are using the 2022 downturn as a template for the current market. The firm's model assumes that the present drawdown will match both the depth and duration of that earlier bear market. While NYDIG did not disclose specific price levels from 2022 in the forecast, the comparison sets a clear benchmark for the current cycle.
Conditional outlook
The forecast is conditional — it depends on the current bear market continuing without a significant catalyst to reverse the trend. NYDIG did not specify what factors could alter the outcome, but the timeline of October gives the market roughly three months to see if the prediction plays out. For now, the firm's outlook serves as a sobering reminder that the crypto winter may not be over yet.
