OPEC+ is expected to pause its planned oil output increases after September 2026, according to sources familiar with the group's internal discussions. The move would mark a shift in strategy for the alliance of major oil producers, which has been gradually restoring production after deep cuts during the pandemic.
Why the pause is coming
The group has been incrementally adding barrels to the market since 2022, aiming to unwind the historic 10 million barrel-per-day cut imposed in 2020. But with global demand growth slowing and non-OPEC supply rising, several members have pushed for a halt. The pause would take effect once the current phase of increases ends in September 2026, effectively freezing output at that level.
The decision would remove the prospect of further supply increases, which could underpin prices. Traders have been watching for signs that OPEC+ would flood the market; a pause signals discipline. However, the group has a history of adjusting course quickly if market conditions change.
Uncertainty remains
The plan is not yet final. OPEC+ ministers are expected to discuss the matter further at their next regular meeting, scheduled for later this year. Some members have argued for more flexibility, while others want a clear commitment to hold output steady. The final decision will depend on how demand evolves over the next several months.
