President Donald Trump confirmed a peace deal with Iran on Thursday via Truth Social, setting off a broad rally in risk assets that pushed Bitcoin to its highest level in nearly two weeks. The agreement extends the ceasefire, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and starts talks on Iran's nuclear program — and it could eventually free up roughly $1 billion in crypto that U.S. authorities seized under Operation Economic Fury. Markets moved fast: S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%, Nasdaq futures jumped 1.3%, and Bitcoin climbed near $65,000, still about 48% below its all-time high but well off recent lows.
What the peace deal includes
Trump's post laid out three immediate steps: an extended ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and the start of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. The statement also flagged that discussions on lifting sanctions against Iran would follow, along with unfreezing Iranian funds — including about $1 billion in crypto seized by the U.S. during Operation Economic Fury, a crackdown on Iranian-linked crypto accounts. That part alone could send a signal to markets that the thaw is real, though the timing of any actual release remains unclear.
Crypto markets jump
Bitcoin wasn't alone. Ethereum climbed back above $1,800 after trading below that level since June 5; it briefly touched $1,700 on June 9. XRP, Solana, and Cardano all posted notable gains. But the best performer among major cryptos was Hyperliquid (HYPE), which rose 10% in a single day to just above $68. The broad move higher suggests traders see the peace deal as a de-escalation that could boost appetite for risk across the board.
A historical pattern for rallies
Analyst Simon Dedic looked back at past conflicts and found a consistent pattern. In 19 out of 20 post-WWII wars, markets fully recovered within an average of 28 days after hostilities ended. He compared the potential rally to the S&P 500's 44% gain in the year after the Korean War armistice and its 25% gain after the Iraq war ceasefire. Dedic's call: a 'massive bull rally' for risk assets if the deal holds. The question now is whether this peace holds long enough to let that historical playbook run.
Sanctions relief in focus
The next concrete step is the negotiation on lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iran's assets. For crypto specifically, the unfreezing of that $1 billion in seized funds could act as a tangible confidence boost — a sign that the U.S. is willing to unclench its grip. But no timeline has been set, and talks with Iran are notoriously fragile. For now, traders are betting the ceasefire sticks.
