PEPE recorded a net exchange outflow of 4.54 trillion tokens in a single day — the largest daily withdrawal since November 2024 — according to Santiment. The move pulls the meme coin off trading platforms, which typically cuts the amount available for immediate sale. It also arrives as Canary Capital pushes a spot PEPE ETF through the SEC, a filing that itself acknowledges the token's value rests on culture, not utility.
The outflow and what it means
Fewer tokens on exchanges doesn't guarantee a rally, but it does remove a chunk of the supply that could be dumped at a moment's notice. For PEPE, which has traded mostly sideways over the past two months, the shift is notable. The token is held by 571,613 unique wallet addresses, making it one of Ethereum's biggest meme coins by holder count — though still far behind Shiba Inu's 1,678,653 addresses.
The one-day outflow of 4.54 trillion tokens is the largest since November 14, 2024. That's a signal that some holders are moving to self-custody, whether to hold long-term or to prepare for staking or other uses. Without the constant overhang of exchange supply, the path for any upward move gets a little less cluttered.
The ETF filing
Canary Capital filed a Form S-1 with the US SEC in April to launch the Canary PEPE ETF, a spot product that would hold the token directly. The filing is blunt about what PEPE actually is: it has no identified blockchain-based utility beyond branding and meme culture, and its market value is driven primarily by cultural relevance and online community sentiment. The document also warns there's no assurance of sustained demand.
That honesty doesn't make the ETF a sure thing. The SEC has approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, but a meme coin product is a different question. The regulator hasn't made a final call, and the filing is still in review.
What analysts are watching
Crypto analyst Rafaela Rigo projects PEPE could deliver a 3x to 5x return in the next bull cycle, targeting a price near $0.0000143 — roughly 400% above its current level of $0.0000028. That's a bullish bet on momentum and community staying power, not on any underlying fundamentals.
Veteran trader Ogle strikes a more cautious tone. He warns that meme coins with thin liquidity can unravel within minutes if large holders sell, pointing to recent price action in CASHCAT as a cautionary tale. Ogle notes that concentrated ownership, leveraged trading, and perpetual futures listings can turn sharp rallies into steep declines, with liquidations accelerating the fall.
PEPE's own liquidity is nowhere near as thin as some smaller meme coins, but the warning still applies. A sudden sell-off by a whale could trigger a cascade, especially if leverage is involved.
The unresolved question
The big test is whether the SEC will actually approve a spot PEPE ETF. That decision could come this year, but there's no deadline set. Until then, the outflow is a data point — a meaningful one, but not a guarantee. The token's price remains hostage to sentiment, and sentiment can flip fast.
