Peter Schiff is back with another warning on Bitcoin, and this time the argument runs through Strategy's balance sheet. In a recording published this week, Schiff said Bitcoin could drop if technology stocks pull back, and he argued that Strategy can no longer lean on its STRC instrument to raise fresh money for Bitcoin purchases. At the time of the recording, Bitcoin was trading around $84,500, up almost 1% for the week.
Why Schiff is pointing at STRC
STRC, Strategy's preferred stock instrument, spent the summer under pressure. It fell to about $75 before recovering to roughly $99.40, a rebound Schiff credits to Strategy repurchasing STRC and Bitcoin climbing back above $80,000.
Schiff's read is that the recovery is cosmetic. He claims the rebound doesn't solve Strategy's financing problem — the price came back, but the ability to issue fresh STRC for Bitcoin buys did not. That's the crux of his argument, and it's the part worth watching as Strategy keeps adding to its pile.
The size of the position
Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, equal to just over 4% of total supply. It has $4.8 billion in USD reserves and $833 million in cash. Its STRC position carries an $8.93 billion notional value, with a 12% variable dividend and a 12.07% effective yield.
The company is still buying. It acquired 334 BTC for about $28.7 million and repurchased another $176 million of STRC. In late September, it bought 1,665 BTC for about $142.8 million, along with $152 million of STRC.
The dividend structure is the thing Schiff keeps coming back to. A 12% variable dividend on a multi-billion-dollar notional is a real cash obligation, and it competes directly with the reserves the company holds.
The macro backdrop Schiff is watching
Schiff ties Bitcoin's risk to a wider market break. He points to softer PCE inflation, weaker employment, lower October rate hike expectations, and falling bond prices — signals he says markets have absorbed without fully pricing the risks.
Oil was around $91 a barrel following a G7 promise to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. That's the kind of number that tends to show up in inflation prints eventually, and it gives Schiff another plank for his argument that the macro picture isn't as calm as equity markets suggest.
Where Bitcoin actually sits
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was around $86,000, up more than 4% in seven days and over 8% across 30 days, but down 30% from a year ago. That last number is the one Schiff would underline. The month has been good. The year has not.
The setup Schiff describes is straightforward: if tech stocks roll over, Bitcoin follows, and Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin exposure becomes the amplifier. Whether that happens depends on whether the economic signals he's citing actually force a repricing.
The next concrete checkpoint is October rate expectations, which Schiff flagged as already softening. If those keep sliding while employment data stays weak, the argument gets harder to dismiss. If they stabilize, Schiff's warning looks like the same call he's been making for years.
