Polkadot's token is teetering just above the $1.17 support level, a price point that could decide its near-term fate. The cryptocurrency has been trading 2.5% above that mark, but technical signals and derivatives data suggest a move lower is likely. With the Relative Strength Index at 40 and zero momentum on the MACD, the odds of a breakdown to $1.15 within the next seven days stand at 65%.
Support level under threat
The $1.17 mark has acted as a floor for Polkadot in recent sessions. But traders are watching it closely — a close below that level would open the door to $1.15, a price not seen since late 2023. The probability of that happening, based on current market structure, is high. Aggressive selling in the derivatives market is adding to the pressure, making the next few days critical for the token.
Technical indicators flash caution
The RSI at 40 is in bearish territory, indicating that sellers have the upper hand. The MACD, meanwhile, shows zero momentum — a sign that buyers aren't stepping in to reverse the trend. Without a catalyst, the path of least resistance is lower. These readings don't guarantee a drop, but they do suggest that the burden of proof is on the bulls to defend $1.17.
Derivatives market shows aggressive selling
Data from the derivatives market tells a similar story. Open interest is declining, and funding rates have turned negative — meaning short sellers are paying a premium to hold their positions. That kind of aggressive selling isn't typical for a token that's simply consolidating. It points to conviction among bears that $1.17 won't hold. If they're right, Polkadot could be headed for a test of $1.15 sooner rather than later.
For now, the token remains above its key support. But the clock is ticking. The next seven days will determine whether buyers can mount a defense or if the selling pressure wins out.
