Bitcoin rose about 3.6% to around $64,800 on Wednesday after June inflation data came in cooler than expected, pushing Polymarket odds that the cryptocurrency will top $52,000 by Thursday to 99.95%.
The CPI print
June headline inflation clocked in at 3.5%, while core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — landed at 2.6%. Both figures were below what economists had forecast. The cooler readings immediately eased fears that the Federal Reserve would need to resume interest rate hikes at its next meeting.
Polymarket's near-certainty
Polymarket bettors have been piling into the “Bitcoin above $52,000 by July 16” contract for days. As of Wednesday afternoon, the contract traded at 99.95 cents on the dollar — effectively a sure thing. The deadline is Thursday, and with Bitcoin already trading well above the threshold, the outcome looks all but locked in.
Market reaction
Bitcoin's jump followed a broader risk-on move across equities and commodities. The S&P 500 also rose on the day. For crypto traders, the CPI release was the week's main event. The data gave them exactly what they wanted: evidence that inflation is cooling without triggering a recession scare.
With the Fed's next policy decision still weeks away, the immediate focus shifts to any hawkish commentary from central bank officials. For now, Polymarket bettors are all but counting their winnings.
