Polymarket traders see a 65% chance that XRP slips below $1 before the end of August, according to the prediction market's latest odds. The token is hovering just above a key technical level that could decide its near-term fate.
The Head-and-Shoulders Setup
XRP has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, a classic bearish reversal signal. The neckline sits at $1.02, which also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. At press time, XRP trades near $1.03, just above that line.
Sell volume surged between Aug 3 and Aug 7, but buyers held the line on Aug 7, though on noticeably weaker buy volume. That's a sign the defense may be running out of steam.
Whale vs. Retail Divergence
A whale-retail divergence gauge reads -6.3, meaning top traders are 96% more short than retail participants. That's a wide gap, and it suggests the big money is betting against the crowd.
Retail buyers have been stepping in, but they're fighting a heavy headwind. The divergence doesn't guarantee a drop, but it does show where the smart money is leaning.
Spot Outflows Shrink
XRP spot outflows have shrunk dramatically, from about $56 million on Aug 3 to $4.3 million for the week ending Aug 10. That's a 92% drop in outflows, which could mean selling pressure is easing — or that the big holders have already moved what they wanted to move.
Either way, the reduced outflow pace hasn't been enough to push the price back above the pattern's neckline.
What Would Confirm or Cancel the Pattern
A clean break of $1.02 would confirm the bearish pattern, with a measured move pointing about 9% lower to roughly $0.92. A deeper flush opens the 1.618 extension near $0.89.
For strength to return, XRP needs to reclaim about $1.09. Only a move back above $1.16 would fully cancel the setup.
The next few sessions will show whether buyers can defend $1.02 or whether the pattern plays out as the Polymarket odds suggest.
