Polymarket traders have cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 37%. The legislation, which would create a federal framework for digital assets, passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee. But it hasn't gotten a Senate floor vote, and negotiations are deadlocked over ethics provisions tied to President Donald Trump's crypto business interests.
The ethics standoff
Senate Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, want enforceable restrictions that prevent senior government officials — including the president — from financially benefiting from the digital asset industry they oversee. Republicans have resisted language aimed specifically at Trump's crypto interests, arguing it could undermine bipartisan support.
Trump's latest annual financial disclosure revealed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto-related income. That includes about $594 million from World Liberty Financial and approximately $635 million from the TRUMP meme coin venture. Democrats argue those numbers create an obvious conflict if Trump signs legislation affecting the same industry.
The math problem
Most legislation requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. That means Republicans need support from several Democrats to pass the CLARITY Act. Several Democrats who previously appeared open to supporting the bill now insist on enforceable ethics safeguards before committing their votes.
Senate leaders have only a limited number of legislative days before the August recess. Appropriations bills, nominations, and other priorities compete for floor time. The window is tight.
What missing the window means
If the CLARITY Act misses the August window, its path could become more difficult later in the year. Congress will shift focus to government funding deadlines. Polymarket traders are pricing in uncertainty rather than outright failure — odds could improve if a bipartisan agreement on ethics language is reached or if a floor vote is scheduled.
For now, the clock is ticking. A bipartisan deal on ethics language could shift the odds quickly — but no one's predicting one anytime soon.
