The probability that the Clarity Act becomes law by 2026 has dropped to its lowest level ever on the prediction market Polymarket, now sitting at just 24% YES. Traders are pointing to delays in the Senate as the main reason for the decline, with no clear path forward for the legislation.
Why the odds fell
Polymarket's contract on the Clarity Act's passage has been trending downward for weeks. The latest drop to 24% marks a record low for the market, which opened at higher probabilities earlier this year. The Senate has not scheduled a vote, and procedural hurdles have slowed progress. Without a floor vote, the bill cannot advance to the president's desk.
What the 24% figure means
In prediction markets, a 24% YES price implies that traders collectively see roughly a one-in-four chance of passage by the end of 2026. The odds reflect growing skepticism that the Senate will act before the next election cycle shifts political priorities. No major amendments or new sponsors have emerged to break the logjam.
What happens next
The Clarity Act remains in committee. Supporters are pushing for a markup session, but no date has been set. If the Senate does not move the bill in the coming months, the odds could fall further. The next key deadline is the end of the current congressional session, after which the bill would have to be reintroduced.
