Polymarket's prediction contract on whether Strategy sold Bitcoin by May 31 resolved to 'no' this week. The outcome followed heated disputes over how the sale should be counted under the contract terms.
The May 31 Deadline
The contract's resolution hinged on a single date. Strategy didn't complete a clear Bitcoin sale before May ended. Traders watched the clock tick down the night of the 30th. It's unclear if they moved coins internally.
How to Count a Sale
The fight started over definition. Some traders claimed Strategy's cold storage transfers counted as a sale. Others argued only third-party transactions at market price qualified. The platform's rules didn't spell it out. This ambiguity split the market.
Polymarket's Ruling
Polymarket admins ruled the moves didn't meet the sale criteria. They cited the absence of counterparty transactions. Many 'yes' bettors called it a raw deal. The platform stuck to its interpretation without comment.
Affected traders have 72 hours to appeal under Polymarket's dispute process. The case may push prediction markets to define terms more clearly. Next up: a similar contract on Ethereum staking yields due later this month.
