A single Polymarket user turned a $400,000 wager into nearly $9 million in one day, betting that Spain would not beat Cape Verde in a World Cup match that ended 0-0. The trader, who goes by the handle 'fishalive' and opened an account in June 2026 with only two predictions, profited from a draw that wiped out millions in bets from those who backed the Spanish favorite.
The $9 million bet that paid off
Fishalive placed a $400,000 bet on 'Spain not to win' at 9% implied odds, which cashed out for $4,702,769.23. A separate wager on Cape Verde +2.5 spread paid approximately $8.5 million. A $4.5 million position was placed just eight minutes before kickoff, according to on-chain data. The combined profit from those two bets came to roughly $9 million in a single day.
The Spain vs. Cape Verde match generated about $64 million in trading volume on Polymarket, part of the platform's broader 2026 World Cup lineup that includes 362 active markets with over $2.5 billion combined volume. The World Cup Winner market alone has logged $2.46 billion in volume, with France leading at 17.6%, Spain at 13.9%, Portugal at 10.8%, and England at 10.5%.
The other side of the coin
While fishalive cleaned up, others got crushed. Trader 'betoor619' risked nearly $1 million on Spain to win at roughly 92% implied odds, with a potential gain of only about $85,000. The draw meant a total loss of the entire stake. Another user placed $1 million on Spain to beat Cape Verde, which would have paid $1,085,943.48, but lost everything on the 0-0 result.
The biggest single loss so far belongs to trader 'leeeroyjenkins', who staked $8.6 million on Belgium to beat Egypt. Belgium went up 1-1 in the 66th minute after conceding early, and the match ended in a draw. That bet would have paid approximately $13.1 million — instead, the entire stake was lost. Within 24 hours, trader 'FlickRaw' lost about $4.2 million: $2.7 million on Netherlands over Japan (ended 2-2 after Japan equalized in the 88th minute) and $1.5 million on Belgium over Egypt (ended 1-1). Polymarket's win-only betting contracts pay out only for a win; a draw means the stake is lost entirely.
Cape Verde's historic point
Cape Verde earned its first World Cup point in history with the draw. The team's 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha was named player of the match after making 27 saves — Spain had 75% possession and fired 27 shots but couldn't score. For a tiny island nation making its debut on the biggest stage, the result was a landmark achievement that also reshaped the betting landscape on Polymarket.
Fishalive's bets paid out because 'Spain not to win' and the Cape Verde spread both profit from a draw — the exact outcome that wiped out the favorite bets. Match-level contracts on Polymarket typically resolve in about 90 minutes, meaning traders see their profit-and-loss screenshots almost immediately.
The World Cup Winner contract is scheduled to resolve around July 20, 2026. With Spain now at 13.9% despite the draw, and France leading at 17.6%, the tournament's betting volumes are expected to keep climbing. The next round of matches will test whether the upset trend continues — and whether fishalive's streak holds.
