A Polymarket trader known as 'fishalive' turned roughly $427,000 into more than $4.7 million by betting that Spain would not beat Cape Verde in their World Cup opener on Monday. The match ended in a 0-0 draw, handing Cape Verde a historic point and making the trader one of the biggest winners of the 2026 tournament so far.
The bet that paid 11-to-1
Before kickoff, Polymarket’s odds gave Spain better than a 90% chance of winning. The 'No Spain win' outcome traded at roughly 9% probability. fishalive bought about $427,952 worth of 'No Spain win' shares — effectively wagering that the overwhelming favorite would stumble. After the final whistle, the market settled at exactly $4,702,769.23. That’s better than 11-to-1 on a single trade.
What Monday’s draw means for Spain
Spain still tops Polymarket’s outright winner odds despite the draw. The team remains one of the favorites to take the whole tournament. But Group H is suddenly wide open. Uruguay and Saudi Arabia both have a chance now. Spain’s path forward isn't in trouble, but the margin for error just got thinner.
Polymarket’s World Cup action
Not everyone fared as well as fishalive. Some users lost close to $1 million backing Spain to win. The platform has seen heavy volume around the World Cup — this trade is among the most profitable single positions of the tournament so far. Prediction markets are known for swinging violently on single matches, and Monday was a textbook example.
Spain faces Uruguay next. Polymarket’s odds will shift, and fishalive’s payout is already locked in. It’s the kind of bet that people will talk about for the rest of the group stage.
