Polymarket’s prediction markets for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have racked up more than $1.8 billion in total trading volume just as the group stage kicks off. France and Spain sit as the narrowest co-favorites ahead of their group-stage matchup, according to the platform’s odds.
The $1.8 Billion Mark
The figure reflects cumulative bets placed across dozens of markets tied to the tournament — match winners, top scorers, group winners and the eventual champion. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, has seen steady growth in sports-related contracts since the last World Cup cycle. The $1.8 billion tally covers all World Cup markets opened since the platform began listing them for 2026.
Volume surged in the days leading up to the group stage, though the exact breakdown between pre-tournament and in-play bets wasn’t disclosed. The platform runs on the Polygon blockchain, with settlement handled by smart contracts after official results are confirmed.
France and Spain as Co-Favorites
Both teams carry the shortest odds to win their group-stage encounter, making them the most heavily backed sides in that specific market. Polymarket’s order book shows near-even probability splits between the two, with a slight edge for France. No other group-stage pairing has odds that tight, according to the platform’s data.
Traders have pushed the combined betting interest past $1.8 billion as the opening matches begin. The group-stage markets will remain open until the final whistle of each group’s last matchday, when contracts settle based on official FIFA outcomes.
What the Volume Means for Polymarket
The $1.8 billion milestone puts Polymarket’s World Cup offering among the largest event-based prediction markets ever run on a blockchain. The company doesn’t take a position — it collects fees on each trade, so the volume directly drives its revenue from this tournament. For context, the platform’s entire 2022 World Cup markets saw about $400 million in volume, though the company has grown significantly since then.
The group stage runs for two weeks. After that, knockout-round markets will likely draw even more liquidity as single-elimination matches raise the stakes. Polymarket hasn’t said whether it will cap any markets or introduce new contract types for the later rounds.
As the group stage plays out, traders will be watching whether France and Spain justify their co-favorite status — or whether an upset reshapes the odds.
