Crypto prediction markets saw $32 million in trading volume tied to Tuesday's World Cup match between Norway and Senegal, a figure that dwarfs earlier group-stage contests. Norway's 3-2 win, powered by a dominant Erling Haaland, drew heavy action on everything from final score to goal-scorer markets. The $32 million total—spread across multiple platforms—marks the largest single-match volume recorded in this year's tournament so far.
Haaland effect
The Manchester City striker's brace and assist weren't just a highlight reel—they moved markets. Contracts on Haaland scoring first, scoring multiple goals, and being named man of the match saw heavy late inflows before kickoff and during the game. Prediction platforms don't break out individual player markets, but the data from public order books shows Haaland-related bets accounted for roughly 40% of all volume on the match, according to traders who monitor the sector.
Volume surge explained
The $32 million figure is more than double the average for other group-stage matches this tournament. Previous high-volume games—like Brazil vs. Argentina and England vs. Germany—topped out around $18 million. What changed? Sources point to the combination of a high-profile European side (Norway) against an African powerhouse (Senegal), plus the narrative around Haaland's form. Short-lived price swings in the minutes after each goal also triggered a wave of scalping bots that added to the total.
Platform competition heats up
The volume spike comes as the two biggest crypto prediction platforms—Polymarket and Azuro—battle for liquidity. Both ran targeted promotions for the match, including reduced fees and bonus tokens for new users. The $32 million total is split roughly 60-40 in favor of Polymarket, but Azuro's on-chain volumes grew 150% week-over-week, the platform said in a blog post on Tuesday. Neither platform disclosed profit-and-loss figures for the match.
The next big test for these markets comes Friday when Norway faces France in a knockout-stage match. Early contracts already show Haaland as the heavy favorite to score anytime, with implied probability above 70%. Prediction market volume could push past the $50 million mark if the game stays close.
