Prediction market trading volume surged past $50 billion during the World Cup in June, a milestone that underscores how fast these platforms are eating into the traditional sports betting business. The figure, driven largely by Kalshi and Polymarket, marks a sharp escalation in the competition for bettors' dollars.
The $50 billion milestone
The $50 billion in volume covers all prediction market trades placed during the month-long tournament. That's more than double the volume seen during the previous World Cup in 2022, according to industry data. The jump reflects a broader shift: more users are turning to event-based contracts rather than conventional point spreads or moneylines.
Prediction markets let people bet on outcomes like match winners, goal totals, or even which player scores first. Unlike sportsbooks, which set odds and take the other side of the bet, these platforms match buyers and sellers directly, taking a small fee on each trade. The model has proven especially popular with younger, tech-savvy gamblers who prefer the transparency of an exchange.
Kalshi and Polymarket lead the charge
Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, and Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, are the two biggest players in the space. Together they accounted for the vast majority of the $50 billion in World Cup volume. Kalshi offers contracts on everything from sports to economic indicators, while Polymarket focuses almost entirely on sports and politics.
Both platforms have seen explosive growth over the past year. Kalshi reported a 300% increase in active users during the World Cup compared to the same period in 2023. Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon blockchain, processed more than $30 billion in trades during June alone. The company doesn't break out user numbers, but its daily trading volume has regularly topped $1 billion since the tournament started.
Threat to traditional sportsbooks
The surge is putting pressure on established sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. These companies have spent billions on marketing and licensing to capture the U.S. market since the Supreme Court legalized sports betting in 2018. But prediction markets offer lower fees and faster payouts, and they don't require users to navigate complex parlay options.
Sportsbooks have responded by adding their own exchange-style products. DraftKings launched a prediction market feature in early 2024, and FanDuel followed with a similar offering in May. But neither has come close to matching the volume of Kalshi or Polymarket. The gap is especially wide for international events like the World Cup, where traditional books often limit bets or offer poor odds on niche markets.
Regulators are watching closely. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees Kalshi as a designated contract market, while Polymarket operates outside U.S. jurisdiction, though it blocks American users. That regulatory split could become a flashpoint if prediction markets continue to grow. Some state gambling commissions have already questioned whether these platforms violate their sports betting laws.
For now, the $50 billion World Cup figure is a clear signal. The question isn't whether prediction markets will keep taking share from sportsbooks — it's how fast, and whether the books can adapt before they lose a generation of bettors.
