Russia is set to finalize a crypto bill tomorrow that would allow cross-border settlements using digital currencies. The legislation, expected to be completed on July 21, marks a step toward integrating cryptocurrencies into the country's international trade framework. But prediction markets suggest traders aren't betting on a Bitcoin surge from the news.
What the bill covers
The bill would permit Russian businesses to use cryptocurrencies for settlements with foreign counterparties. It does not legalize crypto for domestic payments. The exact list of approved digital assets and the operational details remain under wraps until the final text is published.
The prediction market view
On prediction markets, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $160,000 by December 31, 2026, currently sit at just 2.6% YES. That's a low probability, indicating that market participants see limited upside from this regulatory development. The odds haven't moved significantly in recent days, suggesting the news was already priced in or considered a non-event for Bitcoin's price.
Unanswered questions
Key details are still missing. Which exchanges or banks will facilitate the settlements? How will the transactions be monitored? The bill's final text, once released tomorrow, should provide some clarity. Until then, the market is taking a wait-and-see approach. The next concrete step is the publication of the finalized bill, after which implementation timelines will become clearer.
