S&P Global has removed Bitcoin and XRP from its widely followed crypto index, citing revenue criteria that the two assets fail to meet. The decision, announced this week, reshapes the composition of the benchmark just as the market digests a separate prediction market showing only a 6.6% chance that XRP will hit a new all-time high by year-end.
Revenue criteria behind the exclusion
S&P Global's methodology requires each constituent to generate revenue from identifiable sources — think transaction fees, staking rewards, or protocol income. Bitcoin and XRP, despite being the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, don't fit that mold. Bitcoin's miners earn block rewards and fees, but the asset itself doesn't produce revenue. XRP's issuer, Ripple, generates revenue from sales and services, but the token itself lacks a direct revenue stream under the index's definition.
The exclusion isn't a value judgment. It's a technical rule. S&P Global applies the same logic to other assets that fail the revenue test. The index will now hold only cryptocurrencies that can demonstrate some form of ongoing revenue generation.
XRP's slim odds for a record
Separately, prediction market data from this week gives XRP just a 6.6% probability of reaching a new all-time high by December 31, 2026. XRP's current all-time high of roughly $3.40 dates back to January 2018. The low probability reflects persistent regulatory overhang — the SEC case against Ripple only fully concluded last year — and a market that hasn't seen the same speculative frenzy as 2017-2018.
That 6.6% figure isn't zero, but it's not encouraging for bulls. For context, prediction markets often assign higher odds to assets with clear catalysts. XRP doesn't have one on the near-term horizon.
What the index change means
The S&P crypto index is used by a handful of exchange-traded products and institutional benchmarks. Dropping Bitcoin and XRP means those funds will have to rebalance, potentially selling off positions. But the impact is likely muted — most Bitcoin and XRP exposure sits in dedicated products, not broad index funds.
The move also highlights a growing divide in how the industry defines a crypto asset's value. Revenue-based criteria favor tokens tied to active networks with fee models, like Ethereum or Solana. Bitcoin, by design, doesn't fit that framework. That doesn't make it less valuable to investors, but it does make it less index-friendly.
The index rebalancing takes effect next month. For XRP, the prediction market odds will update as the year progresses — and as the SEC's shadow finally fades.
