Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, said Bitcoin's recent weakness stems from restrictive trade policy, rising bond yields, and a massive capital draw from the AI buildout. Speaking at ParaFi Capital's Investor Day in a video posted October 17, Saylor described Bitcoin as 'pure capital' — an asset that gets hit harder than equities when investors flee risk. Bitcoin was trading near $82,400 at the time of the report, roughly 35% below its October 2025 record of $126,080.
The trade war and yield squeeze
Saylor pointed to a year of restrictive trade, foreign, and monetary policy as the backdrop for Bitcoin's slide. He specifically cited repeated trade war declarations against Canada and yield curves rising 100 basis points. Those forces, he argued, have made investors more cautious across the board. It's not a crypto-specific problem, in his telling — it's a macro problem that crypto feels more acutely.
AI is eating the capital
Then there's the AI buildout. Saylor pegged it as roughly a $1 trillion draw on investor money, competing directly with risk assets like Bitcoin for limited capital. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink made a similar point, warning that government deficits and tech demand are both competing for the same pool of money. When cash is tight and yields are up, 'pure capital' assets are the first to get sold.
The bear case gets loud
Not everyone is buying the long-term optimism. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said on October 16 that Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 if US stocks drop 20%. That's a steep call, but it reflects a growing unease about how Bitcoin behaves in a broader market selloff. On the other side, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju argued that spot ETFs have absorbed $58 billion and that on-chain cost basis points to a floor near $30,000.
Bank custody and the credit network bet
Saylor's longer-term thesis rests on bank custody. He expects banks to build credit networks around Bitcoin over the next 12 to 24 months, and he says each $10 billion of credit equals roughly one year of Bitcoin supply. Strategy itself holds about 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, according to Saylor — a position that makes his optimism more than academic.
The next test comes as banks decide whether to move beyond custody into lending. Saylor's timeline gives them 12 to 24 months. Whether they'll take the bait with Bitcoin still 35% off its high is the open question.
