Sberbank expects to process 4 trillion rubles ($46.43B) in crypto trading volume in the first year of its rollout, with that figure climbing to 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06B) by 2029. The bank, which calls the forecast conservative, plans to debut a Bitcoin and crypto wallet plus digital asset custody by December. It also intends to accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as collateral for loans.
A conservative bet on a regulated market
The numbers are big, but Sberbank says they're on the low side. The bank's projection assumes a market that's still taking shape. Russia has been moving toward legalizing crypto trading under strict rules, and Sberbank is positioning itself as the main gateway. The wallet and custody services are set to launch before the end of the year, giving the bank a head start on competitors.
The regulatory ground is shifting
The Bank of Russia published draft regulations for crypto trading in July, and the State Duma is working on a comprehensive framework for digital assets. President Vladimir Putin signed a law that limits who can operate exchanges — only registered entities — and caps how much retail investors can put in. That law also bans using crypto as payment or legal tender, a rule that's been in place since 2022. So Sberbank's trading platform will operate under a tight leash, but with a clear legal path.
Sanctions workaround and the payment ban
Russian companies have been using Bitcoin to get around SWIFT sanctions since 2022, even though crypto isn't legal tender. That's a key driver behind the demand Sberbank expects. The bank's move to accept crypto as loan collateral fits into that picture — it gives businesses a way to unlock value without converting to rubles. The payment ban stays, but the trading and custody side is opening up.
The crackdown on unregistered players
While Sberbank gets a license, authorities are going after those who skip the system. A nuclear engineer in Sarov was sentenced to 18 years for sending about $13 from his crypto wallet to groups designated as terrorist organizations. That's a stark reminder of the stakes. The message is clear: operate through registered channels or face serious consequences.
The next concrete step is Sberbank's December launch. The bank will need to finalize its wallet and custody offering, and the Duma's comprehensive regulation will likely shape how the market actually functions. Whether the 4 trillion ruble forecast holds depends on how quickly the legal framework settles.
