The Senate won't vote on the CLARITY Act until September, after missing its pre-recess window. The chamber filed a cloture motion on Aug. 8 to tee up a vote after lawmakers return, but the delay has done little to boost the bill's prospects in the eyes of bettors.
On Polymarket, traders put the chance of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law this year at just 21%. That's a low bar for a bill that was already running out of time before the August break.
Why the vote slipped
The original plan was to hold a vote before the Senate recessed. That didn't happen. So on Aug. 8, the chamber filed a cloture motion — the procedural step that limits debate and forces a vote — but it won't be taken up until September.
That's a month-long gap. It gives opponents more time to rally, and it gives supporters more time to lobby. But it also means the bill sits in limbo while other legislative priorities stack up.
The CLARITY Act, as its name suggests, is aimed at clearing up how digital assets are regulated. The bill's supporters have argued for months that the current patchwork of state and federal rules is holding back the market. But without a vote, all of that is academic.
What the betting market says
Polymarket's 21% figure is a market price, not a poll. It reflects what traders think will happen, and it's been hovering near that level for a while. The missed vote didn't crater the odds, but it didn't lift them either.
For a bill that still has to clear the Senate, then the House, then a presidential signature, 21% is a steep hill. The September vote will be the first real test — if it doesn't pass then, the bill's chances of becoming law this year likely drop to near zero.
What happens next
The cloture motion is on the calendar for when the Senate reconvenes. If it gets the votes, the bill moves to a final vote. If it doesn't, the legislation is effectively stalled.
For now, the clock is running. September is the next chance to act, and the betting market isn't convinced it'll happen.
