Senate Republicans released a new draft of the Crypto Clarity Act on Wednesday, the latest attempt to establish a federal framework for digital assets. The bill, which has been in development for months, seeks to clarify which cryptocurrencies are securities and which are commodities, and to assign oversight accordingly between the SEC and the CFTC.
What the draft does
The new text includes provisions for a “digital asset taxonomy” that would categorize tokens based on their decentralization level and use case. It also proposes a streamlined registration process for crypto exchanges and a safe harbor for certain decentralized projects. The draft is the product of negotiations among Senate Banking Committee Republicans, though it has not yet been formally introduced.
Market odds
A prediction market tracking the bill’s prospects currently gives it a 38.5% probability of being signed into law by the end of 2026. That’s up from around 25% earlier this year, but still far from a sure thing. The market reflects skepticism about whether the bill can clear a divided Congress and secure the president’s signature before the midterm election season heats up.
What happens next
The draft is expected to be circulated among industry stakeholders for comment over the next few weeks. A formal introduction could come as early as September, though timing depends on the legislative calendar and the broader political environment. For now, the crypto industry is watching closely — but not holding its breath.
