Shiba Inu is trading near $0.00000516 after rebounding almost 4% earlier this week, but the recovery hasn't stopped large holders from cashing out. Wallets holding between 1 million and 100 million SHIB have sold a combined 40 billion tokens since August 22, according to on-chain data.
The 40 Billion Token Selloff
The selling comes on the heels of SHIB's recent price recovery, suggesting profit-taking by larger investors. Over the same period, smaller whales — those holding between 100,000 and 1 million SHIB — have accumulated 990 million tokens. That's a far cry from the 40 billion offloaded by the bigger groups, and it raises a question: can the smaller buyers absorb the supply?
The numbers suggest they might not. The 990 million accumulated by smaller whales is substantially below the 40 billion sold by larger ones, leaving a gap that could weigh on price if selling continues.
Mixed Signals on the Charts
Technical indicators are sending conflicting messages. SHIB holds above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $0.00000489, a sign of short-term support. But the 200-day EMA sits at $0.00000569, acting as a key resistance level that the token hasn't been able to break.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54 on the daily chart and rising, pointing to improving bullish momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator produced a bearish crossover on Sunday, with expanding red histogram bars. That's a classic sign of weakening momentum, and it clashes with the RSI's upward drift.
In the derivatives market, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.93, meaning more traders are shorting SHIB than going long. That bearish positioning could add pressure if the price stalls.
The Supply-Demand Gap
The whale activity and technical signals together paint a picture of a market in flux. Large holders are taking profits after the rebound, while smaller players are stepping in — but not at the same scale. The imbalance between the 40 billion sold and the 990 million bought suggests demand may not fully absorb the supply.
That gap is the crux of the near-term risk. If the larger whales keep selling, the smaller accumulation won't be enough to prop up the price. On the other hand, if the selling slows, the technical support levels could hold.
The 200-Day EMA Test
For now, SHIB's price action hinges on whether it can push through the 200-day EMA at $0.00000569. If the bearish MACD crossover gains traction, the recent rebound could stall. If the token breaks above that resistance, the short positions might get squeezed, giving bulls a chance to take control.
The next few sessions will show whether the whale selling is a one-off or the start of a broader trend. Traders will be watching the 200-day EMA closely — it's the line in the sand.
