Solana's native token SOL is trading below every major moving average, with momentum essentially flat. Yet large traders — often called smart money — are 73% net long on the asset, a position that suggests they're betting on a reversal rather than a deeper slide.
Open interest in SOL futures and options has been quietly growing, even as the spot price fails to break out. The divergence between price action and positioning is drawing attention from traders who watch these metrics for clues about where the market might head next.
Where the price stands
SOL is pinned under its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages — a technical setup that usually signals bearish pressure. Momentum indicators are flat, meaning there's no clear directional push from either buyers or sellers. The market is essentially waiting for a catalyst.
According to data from Coinalyze and other analytics platforms, the probability of a bounce to the $75.71–$76.05 range sits at roughly 60%. That zone represents a key resistance level from earlier this month. If SOL reclaims it, the next target could be a more aggressive move toward $110, though that scenario is speculative and not baked into current probabilities.
Smart money vs. retail positioning
The 73% net long figure among large traders stands in contrast to the broader retail crowd, which has been more cautious. Smart money tends to accumulate when prices are low and sentiment is weak. The growing open interest — without a corresponding price spike — suggests these positions are being built rather than closed.
That kind of quiet accumulation can precede a sharp move. But it can also unwind quickly if the market breaks lower. The lack of momentum means there's no confirmation yet that the longs are right.
The immediate question is whether SOL can push back above the moving averages. A failure to do so could lead to a retest of recent lows near $68. A successful bounce into the $75.71–$76.05 range would put the $110 target back on the table, though that would require a sustained rally of roughly 45% from current levels.
For now, the data points to a coin that's oversold but not yet turning. The next few sessions will show whether the smart money's conviction pays off — or whether the flat momentum turns into a fresh leg down.
