Solana is changing hands at $112.96 on Binance spot, up 2.99% in the past 24 hours. But the token is still stuck below a stubborn resistance level at $116.03, and it's trading under its 20-day simple moving average of $117.15 — a sign that the recent bounce hasn't shifted the broader trend.
Why the 20-day moving average matters here
The 20-day SMA is a short-term trend gauge that traders watch closely. When price sits below it, rallies tend to stall because sellers use the average as a reference point to lighten up. Solana's failure to reclaim $117.15 on this bounce keeps the momentum tilted to the downside. The gap between the current price and the 20-day SMA is roughly $4, which isn't huge, but it's enough to keep buyers cautious.
The resistance at $116.03 is the more immediate hurdle. That level has rejected price at least once in recent sessions, and until SOL closes above it on a daily basis, the path of least resistance remains lower. The 2.99% gain over 24 hours looks decent on paper, but it hasn't been enough to flip the technical picture.
Downside risk builds toward $95
If Solana can't push through $116.03, the next area of interest is $95. That's the level traders are eyeing as a potential landing spot if the current bounce fades. The move from $112.96 to $95 would represent a drop of roughly 16%, a reminder that crypto rallies can reverse quickly when key levels hold.
There's no single catalyst driving the bearish case right now — it's more about the failure to break resistance combined with the sub-20-day SMA position. In technical terms, that's a recipe for a pullback. The $95 target isn't a guarantee, but it's the logical next support zone if selling pressure picks up.
What to watch in the coming sessions
Two numbers matter most: $116.03 on the upside and $95 on the downside. A daily close above the resistance would weaken the bearish thesis and put the 20-day SMA back in play. A break below the recent swing low — wherever that settles — would open the door to the $95 area.
For now, Solana is range-bound with a slight downward bias. The 24-hour gain is real, but it hasn't changed the fact that the token is trading below its short-term average and under a level that has already rejected it. Until that changes, the path of least resistance is lower.
Traders will get their next signal from the daily close. If SOL can't reclaim $116.03 soon, the $95 target becomes the base case for the next leg down.
