Large investors in Solana are betting on a 10% price jump to $95 within the next ten days, even as momentum indicators go flat. Data shows that so-called smart money — traders with big wallets — holds a 75.7% long bias on the token. Retail traders are piling into those same bets, but at leverage levels that one analyst described as dangerous.
Whale Positioning Tells the Story
The 75.7% long figure comes from exchange order-book data that tracks positions held by the largest accounts. That number has held steady for several days, suggesting the whale camp isn’t flinching despite the lack of clear price momentum. Flat momentum indicators mean Solana hasn’t been gaining or losing steam — it’s just sitting in a range. So the bet is that a breakout is coming soon, not that one is already underway.
Retail Traders Jumping In at High Risk
Smaller traders are following the whales’ lead, but they’re doing it with borrowed money. Leverage ratios on Solana perpetual futures have climbed well above average. That creates a fragile situation: even a small dip could trigger a cascade of liquidations, wiping out positions and amplifying any move downward. The whales, with their lower leverage, are less exposed.
Why the $95 Target Matters
Solana last traded near $95 in early March. A move back to that level would represent a 10% gain from current prices around $86. The ten-day window implies traders expect the catalyst — whether it’s a network upgrade, a broader market rally, or something else — to hit relatively soon. But with momentum flat, there’s no guarantee the breakout comes on schedule.
What to Watch for Next
The key number over the next week is Solana’s funding rate. If that stays elevated and the price doesn’t break, long positions become more expensive to hold. That could force a shakeout before any actual breakout. Traders will also be watching for any sudden change in the whale long bias — a drop below 70% would signal that the smart money is losing conviction.
