Bitcoin is back above $78,000 after sliding Friday on Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The rebound follows a five-day surge from $63,000 to $79,500, and the market is now stuck in a consolidation that will likely decide whether that rally resumes or fades.
The Jackson Hole pullback
Warsh's remarks on Friday knocked Bitcoin off its highs, ending a run that had built steadily through the week. A $16,500 move in five days is the kind of burst that invites profit-taking, and the Fed chair's tone gave sellers a reason to act. The pullback was sharp but shallow — Bitcoin is already back near $78,000.
Daily chart: flag pattern, with a catch
The daily setup still looks constructive. Price is holding the ascending trendline beneath and appears to be coiling in a triangle pattern, which chart watchers read as a bullish continuation flag. But the flag is running into resistance from a trendline and the $82,000 area.
Momentum indicators are sending mixed signals. MACD and RSI have been trending up since May, yet price action suggests the broader bear market trend may still be in control. That divergence is the kind of thing that tends to resolve with a sharp move one way or the other.
Weekly chart: a shooting star
The weekly chart is less forgiving. Bitcoin couldn't hold above $78,500 resistance, and last week printed a shooting star candle — a classic topping signal. The weekly MACD looks strong and RSI has broken above its downtrend line, so the bulls aren't without ammunition. But the shooting star is a warning that the five-day run may have hit its ceiling.
The levels that matter
The number to watch is $82,825. If Bitcoin clears that, the $78,500 horizontal resistance flips to support and the path opens toward $82,000. If it fails, the downside targets are $76,000 and then $73,000.
The next few sessions should tell which way this breaks. A close above $82,825 would put the bulls firmly back in charge; a rejection there, especially with the weekly shooting star hanging overhead, could set up another substantial dip.
