Bitcoin is holding onto gains from a weak U.S. jobs report, but the $65,000 level is proving stubborn. The July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and 103,000 jobs were revised down from May and June, cooling expectations for further Fed tightening. Bitcoin briefly touched $65,400 before settling around $64,950, up 0.2% on the day.
Jobs data cools Fed rate-hike bets
The payrolls miss was a surprise. Economists had expected growth, but the report showed a contraction. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, and the downward revision of 103,000 jobs from the prior two months added to the soft picture. September rate-hike odds were slashed to 40% after the release, down from higher levels. Three Fed officials had favored a hike in July, according to the Fed's own statement, but the latest data suggests the central bank may hold off. Bitcoin gained nearly 2% on the initial reaction and has held those gains for three sessions.
ETF inflows pile up
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $854 million from Aug. 3-7, per CoinGlass, with Farside reporting a slightly higher $865 million. BlackRock's IBIT led the charge, contributing $694 million of that total. The steady buying has helped Bitcoin stay above $64,000, but it hasn't been enough to push through $65,000. The inflows are a sign that institutional demand remains strong, even as the price chops sideways.
The $65,000 ceiling and what's next
Bitcoin has been range-bound for roughly two months, with the monthly open near $62,700. Support sits at $64,700-$64,800, while resistance is at $65,300-$66,300. Coinlore puts the intraday band at $63,790-$66,325, with first resistance at $65,469 and a stretch target near $78,085. The next catalyst is the July CPI report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. If inflation comes in hot, rate-hike odds could climb again, and Bitcoin's rally might stall. If it's cool, $65,000 could finally give way.
The CPI print is the next concrete test. Until then, Bitcoin is stuck between support and resistance, with the jobs data doing the heavy lifting.
