Bitcoin may have already touched its cycle low near $59,000, according to Standard Chartered researcher Geoffrey Kendrick. The call comes as Strategy scooped up another 1,587 BTC and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $86 million on Friday — a mix of signals that has traders parsing what comes next. On Polymarket, bettors give a 45% chance that bitcoin will dip again to $64,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick's call
Kendrick, who covers digital assets at Standard Chartered, said the recent price action likely marks a local bottom for this cycle. He pegged that low near $59,000. The statement didn't specify a timeframe, but the implication is that further downside from current levels would be limited — at least in the near term. The call stands out because it comes from a major bank analyst, not a crypto-native shop, and it offers a concrete number for traders to watch.
Strategy keeps buying
Strategy, the corporate bitcoin holder formerly known as MicroStrategy, bought 1,587 BTC. The firm didn't disclose the exact price, but the purchase adds to its already enormous stash. The company has been a steady buyer throughout the downturn, and this latest acquisition suggests its conviction hasn't wavered. For a market still skittish after the spring sell-off, that kind of persistent demand is a supportive signal.
ETF inflows pick up
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $86 million in net inflows last Friday. While not a blockbuster day, it's a notable reversal after weeks of mixed flows. The money suggests some institutional investors are wading back in at these levels. Whether that momentum carries into this week is the open question — Friday's number could be a one-off or the start of a trend.
Polymarket odds and the $64,000 question
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that bitcoin will drop to $64,000 sits at 45%. That's almost a coin flip, reflecting deep uncertainty even as the $59,000 low thesis circulates. The contradiction isn't lost on traders: if Kendrick is right, $64,000 would still be above the bottom, but a 45% chance implies real risk of a retest. The market is pricing in a range of outcomes, and no one can say yet which one will win.
For now, the next concrete data point will be this week's ETF flow reports and any additional corporate buying disclosures. If Strategy's purchase is followed by others, the $59,000 floor could firm up. If not, the Polymarket odds might keep climbing.
