Standard Chartered is holding its $100,000 year-end Bitcoin price target, even after the latest selloff pushed the cryptocurrency to $63,400. The bank said a recovery depends on ETF outflows stabilizing — and there are early signs that might be happening.
The selloff in numbers
The selloff was brutal. Bitcoin saw $4.4 billion in ETF outflows over 13 consecutive days. Strategy — previously known for never selling — exited 32 BTC, its first sale since 2022. Forced liquidations added $1.8 billion to the downward pressure. At its worst, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 12, and Bitcoin is trading more than 51% below its October 2025 all-time high.
What needs to happen
Standard Chartered's analysts say ETF outflows need to turn positive for any sustainable rebound. That shift already started — flows flipped to net positive after the 13-day streak ended. But Bitcoin has to reclaim two key levels: the 30-day moving average at $75,685 and the 200-day at $78,840. Right now it’s below both.
Strategy's behavior matters too. The company sold 32 BTC, but then made new purchases between June 1 and June 7. That matches one of Standard Chartered's conditions for continued buying. If Strategy keeps accumulating, it could signal confidence.
The outlook
Kalshi prediction markets aren't optimistic: they give a 66% chance Bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year and 50% odds it falls under $50,000. Cycle analysts project a historical bottom window around October — about day 900 post-halving — with a potential low of $40,000 to $50,000.
Standard Chartered itself has been cutting its targets all year, from $300,000 in December to $150,000 in January to $100,000 in February. It's sticking with that last number for now. Not everyone agrees on the cycle thesis: Grayscale disputes the four-year pattern, while Fidelity's analysts are split on whether Bitcoin bounces back the way it has before.
