Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, says three signals suggest Bitcoin's cycle low is already behind us. In a note published this week, Kendrick highlighted ETF inflows, falling oil prices, and a shift in macro conditions as reasons to turn bullish on the largest cryptocurrency.
The three signals
Kendrick's first signal is the resumption of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs after a period of outflows. He argues that institutional demand returning to these products indicates that the selling pressure from earlier this year has largely cleared. The second signal is the decline in oil prices, which historically correlates with a more favorable macro backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower energy costs ease inflation fears and reduce the likelihood of aggressive central bank tightening. The third signal is a broader improvement in macro conditions, including a weaker U.S. dollar and stabilizing bond yields, which tend to support Bitcoin's price.
The timing is notable. Bitcoin has been range-bound for months, with many traders waiting for a clear direction. Kendrick's analysis offers a framework for understanding why the cycle low might have already occurred, even if the price hasn't yet broken out decisively. He's not calling a specific price target, but rather arguing that the fundamental setup is turning favorable. Standard Chartered has been one of the more bullish banks on Bitcoin throughout 2025 and 2026, and this note reinforces that stance.
Kendrick's view will be tested in the coming weeks as the market digests the next round of U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals. If ETF inflows continue and oil stays low, his thesis gains credibility. If not, the cycle low debate will drag on. For now, the bank's research desk is betting the worst is over.
