Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick is calling it: the crypto winter is over. He points to Bitcoin's June 5 low of $59,000 — a 53% drop from the October 2025 peak of $126,000 — as the cycle bottom. Three of four winter metrics show recovery, he argues, though one key gauge still reads ice cold.
Why leverage and sentiment point to recovery
Kendrick's case rests on leverage, sentiment, and institutional buying. Perpetual funding rates turned negative, hitting -3.9%, and open interest collapsed — classic signs of capitulation. The Fear and Greed Index sits around 20 ('extreme fear'), a level that historically marks market floors. On the institutional side, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $85.85 million on June 12 and 15, reversing $325 million in outflows on June 5.
The one metric still in winter
Valuation remains the holdout. The Mayer Multiple — Bitcoin price over its 200-day moving average — is at 0.85, below the neutral 1.0 threshold. That puts this metric squarely in 'winter' territory, per Kendrick's framework. Bitcoin also trades below its 200-day average, a line in the sand many analysts watch to confirm a bear market's end.
Strategy keeps buying
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) isn't waiting for confirmation. On June 15, the firm bought another 1,587 BTC for $100 million at an average price of $63,024. That follows a prior 1,550 BTC purchase. Its total stash now stands at 846,842 Bitcoin — worth roughly $56 billion at current prices.
Macro tailwinds building
Outside crypto, a US-Iran peace deal has pushed Brent crude oil down to $80 a barrel. Lower energy prices ease inflation fears, which tends to help risk assets like Bitcoin. The macro backdrop is less hostile than it was a few months ago.
What's still missing
The current drawdown from Bitcoin's peak is 46.9% — shallower than the 75-85% declines in past crypto winters. That could mean this cycle is different, or that the bottom hasn't fully formed. For now, Kendrick's call is a bet on recovery, but the market hasn't yet pushed Bitcoin back above its 200-day average. That cross could be the next concrete event traders watch for.
