Rep. Bryan Steil plans to add language to the House congressional stock ban bill that would explicitly cover prediction markets, including platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The move would expand the scope of the legislation beyond traditional stocks and securities.
The Stock Ban Bill
The House bill aims to restrict members of Congress from trading stocks while in office. It's designed to curb conflicts of interest and insider trading concerns. Steil's amendment would ensure the ban applies to prediction markets, which have grown rapidly in recent years.
Prediction markets allow users to place bets on the outcomes of events, from election results to economic data releases. Polymarket and Kalshi are two of the largest platforms operating in the U.S. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Polymarket operates via a decentralized model that has drawn regulatory scrutiny.
Why Prediction Markets Matter
Critics argue that lawmaker bets on political events could create the same ethical problems as stock trading — if not worse. A member of Congress might have non-public information that could influence the outcome of a policy or election. Steil's language would treat prediction market contracts like any other financial instrument covered by the ban.
The amendment isn't final yet. Steil is expected to offer it when the bill is debated on the House floor. The timeline for that debate hasn't been set, but the move signals that lawmakers are paying closer attention to a market that's now worth billions.
The House is likely to take up the stock ban bill later this year. Steil's proposal will be one of several amendments. If it passes, prediction market operators will need to adjust how they verify users and handle congressional accounts.
