Stellar (XLM) is treading water at $0.164, stuck between its 50-day exponential moving average around $0.165 and the 100-day EMA at $0.174. The tight range comes as on-chain and derivatives data flash a neutral-to-bullish signal, though traders are watching to see if the token can reclaim the higher moving average.
Funding rates flip positive
CoinGlass data shows open-interest-weighted funding rates for XLM turned positive on Friday and held at 0.0030% as of Tuesday. Positive funding means longs are paying shorts to keep positions open — a classic sign of bullish positioning. The move follows a period of neutral-to-negative rates earlier in the month. While the number is small, the shift suggests traders are starting to lean long.
Technical levels to watch
The 100-day EMA at $0.174 is the immediate resistance. Above that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.201 and the 200-day EMA at $0.204 are the next big hurdles. On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $0.165 is the first support. A daily close below that level exposes $0.136 — and a break under $0.136 would likely reopen a broader bearish trend. The relative strength index sits near 57, and the MACD is barely above zero. Mild bullish momentum, but nothing screaming breakout yet.
CryptoQuant sees buy-side dominance
Data from CryptoQuant describes the outlook as neutral-to-bullish, with buy-side dominance evident in flow metrics. That aligns with the funding rate flip. Still, XLM hasn't been able to push through the 100-day EMA — a level that has capped price action for the past week. The consolidation zone is narrowing, which often precedes a larger move.
The next few sessions will be telling. If XLM can close above $0.174, the path to $0.201 opens. If it loses $0.165, the focus shifts to $0.136. With funding rates now positive and on-chain data leaning bullish, the bias is slightly upward — but the chart hasn't confirmed it yet.
